4. A pupil in Y3, has achieved a level 1 in Reading, a level 1 in Writing, and a level 2C in Maths at KS1. What expectations can we have for this child at KS2?

This question requires us to look at the Target Setting Facility in PAT

Go to Analyse / Export Data

Select Set Pupil Targets button.

You will be asked to set-up the school performance parameters:

School band indicates the aspirational qualities of the school

Top 25% of schools bases the average at 12.5 percentile
Top 50% of schools bases the average at the 25th percentile

The Prior Attainment Band refers to the APS for the whole cohort in their KS1 year.

The expectations of a school in the top 25% and with and APS of >16 are going to be greater than one looking at the top 50% and having an APS of <14 at KS1.

You will be presented with this table:

This Screen shows the results from the previous year (KS2 in 2002). The brackets show the National figures. It even shows which pupils made up the group being studied (in this case Level 3 KS2 to Level 4 KS3)

It shows that:

56% of our pupils who were below level 1 at KS1 (APS) were below level 4 at KS2 English
67% achieving level 2C went on to achieve level 4 at KS2 English
56% achieving level 3+ went on to level 5 at KS2 English and so on

It also shows that the school as a whole achieved

77% at 4+ against an expectation of 87% nationally
23% at 5+ against an expectation of 35% nationally

A click on Step 2 brings a chart as in Fig 4.2. This shows PAT's prediction of KS2 English based on the KS1 APS for our new cohort.

The Input Year in the parameter bar has now become the year upon which the prediction is based; ie the pupils listed took their KS1 tests in 2003. We are therefore setting targets for KS2 in 2007. By changing this input year we can set targets of any cohorts for which we have listings and KS1 results.

The prior attainment band can be obtained from the Benchmarking area of the package and a decision has to be made whether to compare the school with the top 25% or top 50% of schools nationally. Typically this will alter the grades proposed and the percentage chances of achieving those grades.

The Chart shows that Geoff Byrne has an APS of 9 at KS1 (based on Reading & Writing) and PAT claims that he will achieve a level 4 in English at KS2. Furthermore PAT is saying that he has a 42% chance of achieving that grade. PAT is also indicating that he has a 2% chance of achieving a level 5.

Before moving to step 4, you must agree whether or not the targets set are achievable. If not, here is the chance to moderate them. It may be that you, the teacher, believe that Geoff will achieve a level 5 at KS2. You can insert this in the moderated target column. It will have an effect on the overall school target which we will look at.

Fig 4.3 shows the values you will find in Step 3 if you leave everything unchanged: